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Hydrogen cars: 2015 is the year
When will hydrogen fuel cell cars be ready?
This is the most frequently asked question about hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. While the technology still needs to be developed further, hydrogen fuel cell cars will arrive at dealerships by 2015.
Number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on the road today
GM has been the most aggressive promoter of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Project Driveway is a demonstration program that started over a year ago where more than 100 Chevy Equinox hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are being driven by members of the general public in Washington, D.C., New York, and Los Angeles. Each person gets to drive the vehicle for three months. GM also brings some of the hydrogen vehicles to “ride and drive” events at conferences and makes them available for journalists to test drive.
Honda started a similar program last summer where a small number of customers in Southern California can lease the FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel cell car for $600 per month. Between 2008 and 2011, Honda will build 200 FCX Clarity hydrogen cars. The company has built the world’s first dedicated hydrogen fuel cell vehicle production facility in Japan. The first Honda FCX Clarity rolled off the production line last June which was almost exactly 100 years after the first production Ford Model T.
Furthermore, Daimler has been testing around 100 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for several years. And Toyota, Hyundai, Nissan, Ford, and Volkswagen all have a small number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on the road.
At the moment, the hydrogen fueling infrastructure for these vehicles is very limited. There are around 60 hydrogen fueling stations that are operational in the U.S. Half of these are in California. On the other hand, there are around 170,000 gasoline stations in the U.S.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle driving experience
A frequent comment from people who test drive hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is that besides the lack of engine noise the experience is very similar to driving a gasoline-powered vehicle.
The driving range of hydrogen fuel cell cars has improved greatly. The Toyota FCHV (Highlander) hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is a mid-size SUV that gets 516 miles of driving range with only slightly less rear trunk and passenger space as the Toyota Highlander Hybrid. The vehicle stores hydrogen at 10,000 pounds per square inch (psi).
Other hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have driving ranges as low as 180 miles. There are a variety of reasons for this including storing hydrogen at 5000 psi, using smaller tanks, and having less efficient fuel cells. However, with the exception of the Honda FCX Clarity, most hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are converted gasoline-powered vehicles. With vehicles that are built specifically to run on hydrogen, extra space for the hydrogen tanks can be created. Furthermore, the hydrogen prototype vehicles are typically utilizing fuel cell technology that is one to three years old. The next generation fuel cells being developed by the car companies will be more efficient, smaller, and weigh less.
The bottom line is that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be able to meet customer needs for trunk space, passenger space, a 300-mile driving range, etc.
Remaining obstacles with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
The only two remaining obstacles with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are cost and durability. The fuel cell technology will likely be ready in the 2012 time frame. This will give the car companies four to six years to improve on the fuel cells that are in the existing prototype hydrogen vehicles.
However, there are two other cost issues. The car companies will also need to optimize the manufacturing process and mass produce the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in order to make them economical for consumers.
Dieter Zetsche, CEO of Daimler, said in early 2009 that his company will be able to produce hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at the same cost of a hybrid vehicle in 2013 or 2014 assuming at least 100,000 units are built per year. Daimler is planning to begin limited production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles this summer.
Toyota has said that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will arrive at dealerships by 2015 or perhaps sooner. GM has said hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be sold beginning in 2014 or 2015.
Building the hydrogen fueling infrastructure is the real issue
Since hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are very close to being ready, the real issue is that the hydrogen fueling stations need to be built. The car companies are clearly taking care of their part. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be ready to be mass produced in three or four years.
However, despite the tremendous amount of progress with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the hydrogen industry as a whole is thinking very small when it comes to ramping up the hydrogen infrastructure. There is almost no talk right now of building thousands of hydrogen fueling stations by 2015. Moreover, a “real world” hydrogen fueling station (i.e. one that could dispense 1000 or 1500 kilograms of hydrogen per day) has yet to be built. The existing hydrogen fueling stations typically dispense tens of kilograms per day for a small number of vehicles.
With peak oil looming, oil prices are likely headed back to $100 or $150 per barrel in the next two or three years. Furthermore, they could potentially go even higher five years from now. Therefore, the lack of a sense of urgency to get the hydrogen fueling infrastructure built on a scale that is necessary is baffling.
Another unsettled issue is how the hydrogen fueling stations will be financed. The focus up until now has been on the oil companies and the federal government. However, both have shown little interest in building the hydrogen fueling infrastructure.
Last fall, I proposed a way to build the hydrogen fueling infrastructure that does not involve the oil companies, federal government, or subsidies. The idea is to have hydrogen fueling station cooperatives. Here is how they would work.
One thousand people who live near each other would agree to purchase a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle and each pay $2000 extra in order to finance a $2 million hydrogen fueling station. Each person would then own 1/1000th of the fueling station. This would solve the hydrogen infrastructure “chicken and egg” problem, because both the vehicles and the fueling station would come at the same time.
Furthermore, the idea is scalable. For example, the concept could be used to build 50 hydrogen fueling stations that are spread throughout the Phoenix metro area. The stations would provide fuel to 50,000 residents of Phoenix who purchase hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
It should be noted that these hydrogen fueling stations will most likely be selling hydrogen that is produced on-site from natural gas. This will likely be the most economical way to produce hydrogen for at least several years. While this will result in around half of the carbon dioxide emissions as cars powered by gasoline, the downside is that the increased demand for natural gas will eventually cause the price to go much higher.
However, hydrogen can also be produced from wind, solar, or nuclear power. The short-term cost will be higher than producing hydrogen from natural gas. On the other hand, these production methods will result in very stable prices for consumers.
With electricity generated from wind, solar, or nuclear power and transmitted over the electric grid, the hydrogen could be produced on-site with electrolyzers at fueling stations. Another option is to produce the hydrogen at wind, solar, or nuclear facilities that have a large number of electrolyzers and then distribute the hydrogen to fueling stations via pipelines and trucks.
The hydrogen could also be produced at solar or nuclear facilities through methods that utilize the heat from solar or nuclear power. These methods are much more efficient than first generating electricity from solar or nuclear power and then producing hydrogen via electrolysis. In this scenario, pipelines and trucks would also be used to distribute the hydrogen to fueling stations.
Summary
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that meet mainstream customer requirements will arrive at dealerships by 2015. However, people need to be thinking much bigger when it comes to building the hydrogen fueling infrastructure. Perhaps this will happen when oil returns to $100 or $150 per barrel in the next two or three years.
This is a guest post by Greg Blencoe, CEO of Hydrogen Discoveries, Inc., which is a start-up company with a large-scale hydrogen storage technology and a hydrogen pipeline technology that is based in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. He also publishes the Hydrogen Car Revolution blog.
Top five cleanest gasoline cars
Four of the five pollute less than some hybrids
With all the attention the emerging technologies are getting in the automotive press, you tend to forget about the decades-old standard, the conventional gasoline engine.
You're definitely paying a premium to be green, with hybrid technology easily adding two or three thousand dollars to the price of a car. And most electrics, such as Tesla's roadster, are priced only for the wealthy. Makes for great red carpet press for the Hollywood-types but the everyday, commute-to-work driver, just can't afford it. Even GM's Volt will be priced in the $40,000 range, before any government subsidies kick in.
So rather than concentrate so much on the new, NADA Guides has released a list of the top five cleanest conventional gasoline cars for this year's Earth Day.
"It is no surprise that on Earth Day the automotive world will be focused on the latest and greatest hybrid vehicles, but the fact remains that consumers are still overwhelmingly buying and driving conventional gasoline cars," said Michael Caudill, spokesperson for NADA Guides. "The Top Five Cleanest Conventional Cars show that consumers have options for vehicles that are easy on the environment without the higher price point of emerging hybrid technology."
The cars that made the list were based on a combination of scores from three criteria: greenhouse gas emissions, smog-producing air pollution and combined miles per gallon. All data was based on 15,000 miles of driving per year, with 55 percent of it city driving and 45 percent highway driving.
Greenhouse gas emissions include carbon dioxide, methane gas, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons. Theses figures are expressed in tons per year. Smog or air pollution includes nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, various carbon-containing compounds (including hydrocarbons), formaldehyde and solid particulates.
It's nice to see three of cleanest cars are from American manufacturers; i.e., the 2009 Pontiac G5, the 2009 Chevy Cobalt LS and the Ford Focus S. The Hyundai Elantra GLS lands up in the middle of the pack with the 2009 MINI Cooper coming in last. It's surprising to see the MINI as the dirtiest of the bunch, with it emitting the most air pollution yet still being very efficient. You can bet BMW will work to clean it up.
As many would argue, hybrid and electric technology is not ready to replace the traditional gasoline engine. Will prices adjust eventually? Probably. But until then, you have a few options to be green without paying for it.
BMW's all-electric MINI E
Electric car to be unveiled at Los Angeles Auto Show
BMW has chosen the Los Angeles Auto Show to present the new all-electric MINI E to the media. As reported a few months ago by Autopia, BMW has been working on the plug-in MINI and will make it available to select markets.
500 cars for North America
Much of the speculation surrounding the electric MINI is that it helps BMW meet some states zero-emissions mandates. BMW has 500 MINI E's headed to three states in the U.S.: California, New York and New Jersey. These cars will go to private and corporate customers.
Each vehicle carries a one-year lease with an option to extend it. And following BMW's common practice of servicing their leased vehicles free of charge, any maintenance or service requiring the replacement of worn parts will be included.
Once the lease is up, the MINI E is returned to BMW engineers for comparative testing.
On a side note, BMW provides a wallbox installed in a customer's garage. It provides higher amperage for short charging times. Expect a MINI E to take about 2.5 hours to charge. Only lockable garages will be considered for MINI E power stations.
Production of the 500 cars will take place at BMW’s Oxford and Munich sites and should be completed before the end of 2008.
MINI-like performance?
As you might have guessed, the MINI E will only be available as a two-seater. The rear passenger seats will be occupied by the cars lithium-ion battery pack, made up of 5,088 cells grouped into 48 modules.
The cars electric drive train will produce about 162 lb-ft of torque, driving the front wheels. You'll get to 62 mph in about 8.5 seconds and top out at an electronically governed 95 mph.
Of course it's hard to estimate how far the car will go on a single charge. According to BMW, one kilowatt hour equals 5.4 miles. A fully charged BMW E draws 28 kilowatts. So it's safe to assume the car has a 150 mile range. The MINI E also has a regenerative braking feature where the electric motor acts as a generator, directing power to the batteries that otherwise would be lost. BMW says this feature extends the car's range by up to 20 percent.
MINI E styling
Yes, should you be one of a select few to lease a MINI E, you will be comfortable knowing that what you are driving is unique. But the styling, not so much. All 500 MINI E's will look the same, as pictured here. Even more unfortunate, the stylized power plug "E" logo is everywhere: the roof; on the front and back of the car; the charger port lid; on the dashboard; and finally, on the door jamb. Yikes! I hope you like yellow!
And, with such a limited number of MINI E's, will BMW go the way of Honda and target Hollywood for it's eye-catching and media-hyped market? We'll have to see once the cars are ready for distribution.
Tesla Motors to focus on revenue
Elon Musk, Chairman of the Board, Product Architect and CEO of Tesla Motors,
blogged today about a change in focus at the electric car company.
"At Tesla, we have decided that the wise course of action is to focus on our two revenue producing business lines - the Roadster and powertrain sales to other car companies. In the Roadster, Tesla has a unique product with a large order book that continues to grow, despite softness in the automobile sector. Our powertrain business is profitable today and is also growing rapidly," Musk said.
There's not doubt Tesla is going to be effected by the economic slump like any other car maker. The smart move is to leverage their strengths, as any business should right now.
First, their Roadster is a success and in strong demand. With that, explains Musk, Tesla will work to ramp up production, improve their margins and reduce operating expenses. The car, to put it lightly, is a hit. All the better to feed off of it and increase sales.
Second, the Tesla power train is unique and desired by the rapidly growing green arm of the automotive industry.
Case in point, the recently announced Dodge EV. Based off the Lotus Europa, the Dodge EV uses Tesla's motor, electronic controller and lithium-ion battery technology. An excellent example of two companies working to the benefit of each. But to Tesla, it's a path to additional revenue.
Two unfortunate results of Tesla's refocus is a reduction in staff and a delay in the development of the Model S program.
With the planned consolidation of operations, there will be, according to Musk, a "...headcount reduction." There's no word from Tesla on how many people this will effect.
"In anticipation of moving vehicle engineering to our new HQ in San Jose, we are ramping down and will close our Rochester Hills office near Detroit. Good communication, tightly knit engineering and a common company culture are of paramount importance as Tesla grows," explained Musk.
As far as the Model S' development, production will be delayed roughly six months to mid-2011.
Even though Tesla plans on unveiling the Model S early next year, detailed production engineering, tooling and commitments to suppliers will slow until a Department of Energy loan guarantee becomes effective. On the upside, Tesla plans on using the extra time to make the car better.
Chrysler's all-new electric cars
First model available to consumers by 2010
A few days ago, Chrysler announced their new foray into the green vehicle market, showing prototypes of the Dodge EV, the Jeep EV and Chrysler EV. It's pretty obvious that Chrysler is targeting a specific market with each car, with one to be selected for North American sales by 2010.
Chrysler, going green
Of course, the model that catches our eye the most is the Dodge EV. According to The Car Enthusiast, all of these vehicles will be using the same motor, electronic controller and lithium-ion battery technology that Tesla is using in their Roadster.
The Dodge EV is based on the Lotus Europa platform. Well, let's not mince words here. It is a Lotus Europa. The Europa was introduced in 2006 but is not sold in the United States. But I'm not complaining. Lotus is known for light, excellent handling cars. All the better and should make the Dodge EV very entertaining.
Like Tesla's Roadster, the Dodge EV is an all-electric sports car powered by a 200 kW, or 268 horsepower, electric motor.
With 480 lb.-ft. of torque on tap, performance-minded drivers will relish the cars 0 to 60 mph time of less than five seconds and a top speed of more than 120 mph. Pretty sweet and not unlike the Tesla. Driving range should be in the neighborhood of 150-200 miles and rechargeable with a standard 110- or 220-volt household outlet.
The other cars that Chrysler introduced were they Jeep EV and a mini-van, the Chrysler EV. Both use a system similar to the Volt's, whereby each has an electric motor with lithium-ion batteries and a small gasoline engine that provides energy to the electric-drive system when needed.
Jeep's are known by off-road enthusiasts as truly trail-ready and Chrysler hopes to maintain that reputation with a possible future innovation. Chrysler is looking at a four-wheel drive system for the Jeep EV that would include an electric motor at each wheel. Talk about off-road handling, especially if each motor could be controlled independently.
Chrysler can make an impact on the all-electric and hybrid market with these vehicles by delivering cars that not only work for the average driver but at a price they can afford as well. Wouldn't it be nice to see Chrysler benefit from their going green and see some true results. Success is in short supply right now with the American car makers. Chrysler has the opportunity to lead the way.
The death of the manual
Are automatic's killing our fun?
It just recently came to light that Pontiac will not be dropping a six-speed manual into their new sports sedan, the G8 GT. If you prefer three pedals and the option of double-clutching, you'll have to opt for the high performance variant, the G8 GXP.
Now, to be fair, modern day slush-boxes are incredible pieces of engineering. Simply look to the SuperFast2 transmission in Ferrari's Scuderia. The Ferrari is, of course, a pricey example. Other auto makers such as Volkswagen and Porsche have developed dual-clutch manuals as alternatives to automatics as well. Commonly referred to as DSG, or Direct-Shift Gearbox, these are transmissions that seemingly operate as both an automatic and a manual, without a conventional clutch pedal.
With transmissions such as these, is there a growing trend in the automotive industry to move away from manual transmissions? Automatics easily outsell traditional manuals, with the reasons outlined above. Today's automatics are blurring the lines between the two, providing drivers the ease of shifting automatically to shifting manually with a paddle or lever. Why put up with that pesky clutch pedal, lurching and jerking your way through rush hour traffic?
All of the above are great examples of modern day drivetrains. But what about us traditionalists? Believe it or not, there are a group of enthusiasts that actually prefer to shift gears manually, leaving the upshifts and downshifts to our discretion. Simply put, it's more fun! We enjoy being as involved in the driving experience as much as possible.
So where does that leave us, the gear heads that like a manual five or six-speed? Safe for now. None of the auto makers has announced the death of the manual. But what can be said about the future? Current trends in the automotive world point to a future of hybrid or all-electric cars. Vehicles that won't need driver operated transmissions, with the electric motor providing a continuous flow of power. No shifting required.
As an enthusiast, this is just a bit frightening. This "electric wave" does not bode well for true drivers out there. Who wants to drive a car with so little control? What do you think? Are we on the brink of a major evolution in the automotive industry? Do you plan on keeping your manual trans car, the car that soon may be called "old school"?
Is $40,000 too much?
flickr photo credit: Larry Boswell, Chevy Volt Concept
I wrote not long ago about the Volt and the costs of innovation that General Motors decided to accept for its development.
In an article in the Seattle Times, GM's Bob Lutz revealed that the first generation Volt will sell for $40,000, about $10,000 more than originally projected. Lutz went on to say the auto maker will not profit from sales of the car.
Lutz has made it clear that cars like the Volt are the wave of the future. He expects a quarter of all cars sold between 2020 and 2025 to be either electric or hydrogen powered.
Like I explained in my previous post, I'm unsure about the government subsidizing the cost of the vehicle. The United States Congress is looking into tax breaks for those who purchase vehicles like the Volt. I would rather the government take the money and invest it in expanding an alternative fuel infrastructure, such as hydrogen fueling stations. Stations such as these will need to be available once those alternatives become more viable.
I was reading comments from readers over at the Autoblog and one stuck in my mind from Keat. He made the point that as production ramps up, like any new product, the price comes down. Basic economics. Plus, as GM switches gears and produces more fuel efficient vehicles, the Volt will be the auto makers "halo car". It will be the car that set's the stage for GM as the innovator they need to be as we head into a future of sparse yet expensive fuel supplies.
The Volt...a General Motor's innovation?
flickr photo credit: Larry Boswell, Chevy Volt Concept
And an unlikely bargain.
If I were to ask you how much technology plays a part in our day to day lives, what would you say? Probably a great deal. What don't you use everyday that hasn't been improved upon through technology?
Today, technology is a natural part of a products progression. It improves it and makes it better. And the market? Usually it improves as the innovators take the first step and the competition follows suit.
The Chevy Volt, as well as it's hybrid brethren, are products that has been advanced through technology. Markets, demand and price are all factors driving change. In this case, the automobile. Consumers are looking to save money at the pump, play a part in driving cleaner vehicles and wanting the latest technology.
Now is technology always affordable? Of course not. So why are consumers and the media so upset when GM's initial price point for the Volt is probably impossible? Yes, buyers screamed with their early DVD player or flat-panel TV purchase. That's expected with new technology. If you're one of the first adopter's, you gotta pay to play. Prices, over time, always come down.
Just a week ago, GM CEO Rick Wagoner talked about the Volt selling for $30,000. Now, unless the federal government subsidizes your Volt purchase, expect to pay $40,000 or more for it. So what's wrong with letting the market proceed at it's natural pace? Let the price of the car fall where it should with technology as it stands. Did anyone, government or otherwise, subsidize the purchase of your flat-screen TV? Of course not.
GM is playing the role of the innovator here. They've decided to accept the challenge of developing new technology. And the technology just isn't there yet. No matter what anyone says, electric or hybrid-electric cars are not ready for prime time. All electric isn't because economically, batteries just can't store enough energy yet. And hybrid-electric because it still relies on an engine burning fossil fuel. And, to most consumers, the additional cost of the hybrid drive needs to be justified. The money you save on fuel just doesn't pay for the hybrid power plant.
You can look to the Tesla Roadster as an example of progress, progress that Tesla Motors decided to tackle themselves. The problem with their roadster is it's too expensive for the average day-to-day commuter trying to get to work. But certainly an example of innovation, especially by a small private company.
An interesting side note is the advances being made in battery technology, seemingly parallel to the demand for more efficient cars. A coincidence? I doubt it. Demand is dictating a cheaper power cell that can store more energy. Simple innovation, but innovation requires time.
But how much time does General Motors have to capture the market? Not much. The Volt is touted as an all electric car. In some ways it's still a hybrid. It has a traditional gasoline engine on-board but only to charge the batteries when needed. In the future, GM hopes the engine will be powered by hydrogen. But the other auto makers are working just as furiously on emerging technologies, all of them hoping to discover the holy grail of automotive independence...being free of oil.
Innovators always accept a great deal of responsibility, sometimes to the detriment of their reputation. GM has decided to take on that responsibility, hoping to launch a product to meet a growing demand. Do you think GM will deliver? Is the Volt capable of shaking GM's truck-only reputation and bring a renewed sense that they are innovators? We'll know once they announce a showroom-ready car.
Hybrid outlasts the 'Ring
We wanted to take a moment and quickly update our readers regarding our previous post about the hybrid Apollo that competed over the weekend in the Nürburgring 24 hour race in Germany.
In a press release following the race, Gumpert Sportwagenmanufaktur said, "In front of over 200,000 motorsport fans, the Apollo showed that hybrid technology has good prospects in motorsport. At 3pm, the Apollo, piloted by Heinz-Harald Frentzen, crossed the finish line, powered only by the electric engine. Frentzen was assisted by Dirk Müller, Dominik Schwager and Mark Engels."
Making headlines here is, of course, a hybrid-powered race car. The only thing that has come close in recent history is Audi's diesel-powered R10. No, the Audi's not a hybrid but it doesn't use conventional racing fuels either.
Hats off to a race team willing to try something new but, even more so, a team willing to take on the big boys. They didn't have the technical and financial backing of the manufacturer-backed teams yet they competed and finished. Impressive.
Can a hybrid beat a Porsche?
Hybrid engine technology has made its way to the track for the Nürburgring 24 hour race in Germany. Formally christened the Green Hell by race car river Jackie Stewart, the Nürburgring has grown to be much more than a race track after taking on a life of its own through the years. But over the course of 24 hours, manufacturers and drivers will battle this weekend, hoping to be crowned king of the 'Ring.
One of the private teams, with former Formula 1 driver Heinz-Harald Frentzen and Dirk Muller, have entered a hybrid based on the Gumpert Apollo. The race car is powered by both a 100 kW electric motor and a 3.3 liter V8 twin-turbo gasoline engine, together producing a total of 630 hp.
Frentzen see's an opportunity for motor sports to take the lead in furthering the development of hybrid technologies.
“Motorsports can not ignore the necessity to save energy. I see a chance that our sport will go back to the forefront of technical development, making cars outside of the racetrack much more energy efficient,†said Frentzen.
In a race such as this, reliability is the deciding factor. Unfortunately, they will be battling Porsche, the endurance race champs. There will be 34 Porsche GT3 RSR's on the starting grid, making it the most popular car among competitors. Such a huge showing by one manufacturer means just one thing...success. Porsche has been winning races for decades and continues to prove to be a wise investment among race teams the world over.
The hybrid Apollo has it's work cut out for it.
